Public health · IDSS2 dataset
The sixteen-point gap nobody had mapped
Five diseases, 500 case reports, and a recovery-rate spread wide enough to be a policy problem — not a medical one.
Five diseases — malaria, typhoid, cholera, COVID-19, tuberculosis — across 500 case reports. Where is treatment working, and where is it quietly failing?
Recovery rates ranged from 52.3% in Lagos to 68.3% in Kano — a 16-point spread that points to unequal healthcare access, not unequal disease. Ages 40–45 carried the highest case volume of any five-year band, with men slightly ahead of women, and all five diseases showed substantial volume in that range.
Six actionable policy recommendations: direct resources to low-recovery states, strengthen disease reporting and testing systems, and build age-specific interventions around the 40–45 cohort.
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The model that was too perfect